full transcript
From the Ted Talk by Didier Sornette: How we can predict the next financial crisis
Unscramble the Blue Letters
Perhaps more surprisingly, the same type of theory applies to biology and mdeincie, parturition, the act of giving birth, epileptic seizures. From seven months of pregnancy, a meothr starts to feel eopidsic prcrusroey contractions of the uterus that are the sign of these maturations toward the instability, giving birth to the baby, the dragon-king. So if you measure the precursor signal, you can actually identify pre- and post-maturity problems in advance. Epileptic seizures also come in a large vriteay of size, and when the brain goes to a super-critical state, you have dragon-kings which have a dgeree of paedilttbiricy and this can help the patient to deal with this illness. We have applied this theory to many systems, lsdelanids, glacier collapse, even to the dynamics of prediction of success: blockbusters, YouTube videos, movies, and so on. But perhaps the most important application is for fcainne, and this theory illuminates, I believe, the deep reason for the financial crisis that we have gone through. This is rooted in 30 years of history of bbeulbs, starting in 1980, with the global bbbule crashing in 1987, followed by many other bubbles. The biggest one was the "new economy" irneentt bubble in 2000, crashing in 2000, the real estate bubbles in many ctneiuors, fiaicnnal derivative bubbles everywhere, stock market bubbles also everywhere, commodity and all bubbles, debt and credit bubbles — bubbles, bubbles, bubbles.
Open Cloze
Perhaps more surprisingly, the same type of theory applies to biology and ________, parturition, the act of giving birth, epileptic seizures. From seven months of pregnancy, a ______ starts to feel ________ __________ contractions of the uterus that are the sign of these maturations toward the instability, giving birth to the baby, the dragon-king. So if you measure the precursor signal, you can actually identify pre- and post-maturity problems in advance. Epileptic seizures also come in a large _______ of size, and when the brain goes to a super-critical state, you have dragon-kings which have a ______ of ______________ and this can help the patient to deal with this illness. We have applied this theory to many systems, __________, glacier collapse, even to the dynamics of prediction of success: blockbusters, YouTube videos, movies, and so on. But perhaps the most important application is for _______, and this theory illuminates, I believe, the deep reason for the financial crisis that we have gone through. This is rooted in 30 years of history of _______, starting in 1980, with the global ______ crashing in 1987, followed by many other bubbles. The biggest one was the "new economy" ________ bubble in 2000, crashing in 2000, the real estate bubbles in many _________, _________ derivative bubbles everywhere, stock market bubbles also everywhere, commodity and all bubbles, debt and credit bubbles — bubbles, bubbles, bubbles.
Solution
- bubbles
- episodic
- medicine
- mother
- countries
- variety
- financial
- degree
- precursory
- landslides
- bubble
- predictability
- internet
- finance
Original Text
Perhaps more surprisingly, the same type of theory applies to biology and medicine, parturition, the act of giving birth, epileptic seizures. From seven months of pregnancy, a mother starts to feel episodic precursory contractions of the uterus that are the sign of these maturations toward the instability, giving birth to the baby, the dragon-king. So if you measure the precursor signal, you can actually identify pre- and post-maturity problems in advance. Epileptic seizures also come in a large variety of size, and when the brain goes to a super-critical state, you have dragon-kings which have a degree of predictability and this can help the patient to deal with this illness. We have applied this theory to many systems, landslides, glacier collapse, even to the dynamics of prediction of success: blockbusters, YouTube videos, movies, and so on. But perhaps the most important application is for finance, and this theory illuminates, I believe, the deep reason for the financial crisis that we have gone through. This is rooted in 30 years of history of bubbles, starting in 1980, with the global bubble crashing in 1987, followed by many other bubbles. The biggest one was the "new economy" Internet bubble in 2000, crashing in 2000, the real estate bubbles in many countries, financial derivative bubbles everywhere, stock market bubbles also everywhere, commodity and all bubbles, debt and credit bubbles — bubbles, bubbles, bubbles.
Frequently Occurring Word Combinations
ngrams of length 2
| collocation |
frequency |
| stock market |
4 |
| critical time |
4 |
| great recession |
3 |
| extreme events |
3 |
| black swan |
3 |
| perpetual money |
3 |
| money machine |
3 |
| financial crisis |
2 |
| phase transition |
2 |
| swan concept |
2 |
| key idea |
2 |
| change regime |
2 |
| epileptic seizures |
2 |
| global bubble |
2 |
| macro hedge |
2 |
| hedge fund |
2 |
| chinese government |
2 |
| essentially impossible |
2 |
| unsustainable path |
2 |
ngrams of length 3
| collocation |
frequency |
| perpetual money machine |
3 |
| black swan concept |
2 |
| macro hedge fund |
2 |
Important Words
- act
- advance
- application
- applied
- applies
- baby
- biggest
- biology
- birth
- blockbusters
- brain
- bubble
- bubbles
- collapse
- commodity
- contractions
- countries
- crashing
- credit
- crisis
- deal
- debt
- deep
- degree
- derivative
- dynamics
- epileptic
- episodic
- estate
- feel
- finance
- financial
- giving
- glacier
- global
- history
- identify
- illness
- illuminates
- important
- instability
- internet
- landslides
- large
- market
- maturations
- measure
- medicine
- months
- mother
- movies
- parturition
- patient
- precursor
- precursory
- predictability
- prediction
- pregnancy
- problems
- real
- reason
- rooted
- seizures
- sign
- signal
- size
- starting
- starts
- state
- stock
- surprisingly
- systems
- theory
- type
- uterus
- variety
- videos
- years
- youtube